Plant Pathology (2009) 58, 1001-1009

D.E. te Beest, M.W. Shaw, N.D. Paveley and F. van den Bosch (2009)
Evaluation of a predictive model for Mycosphaerella graminicola for economic and environmental benefits
Plant Pathology 58 (6), 1001-1009
Abstract: A method was developed to evaluate crop disease predictive models for their economic and environmental benefits. Benefits were quantified as the value of a prediction measured by costs saved and fungicide dose saved. The value of prediction was defined as the net gain made by using predictions, measured as the difference between a scenario where predictions are available and used and a scenario without prediction. Comparable 'with' and 'without' scenarios were created with the use of risk levels. These risk levels were derived from a probability distribution fitted to observed disease severities. These distributions were used to calculate the probability that a certain disease induced economic loss was incurred. The method was exemplified by using it to evaluate a model developed for Mycosphaerella graminicola risk prediction. Based on the value of prediction, the tested model may have economic and environmental benefits to growers if used to guide treatment decisions on resistant cultivars. It is shown that the value of prediction measured by fungicide dose saved and costs saved is constant with the risk level. The model could also be used to evaluate similar crop disease predictive models.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Frank van den Bosch, Michael W. Shaw

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Zymoseptoria tritici