Oikos (2005) 110, 30-42

David Claessen, Christopher A. Gilligan and Frank van den Bosch (2005)
Which traits promote persistence of feral GM crops? Part 2: implications of metapopulation structure
Oikos 110 (1), 30-42
Abstract: Transgenes may spread from crops into the environment via the establishment of feral populations, often initiated by seed spill from transport lorries or farm machinery. Locally, such populations are often subject to large environmental variability and usually do not persist longer than a few years. Because secondary feral populations may arise from seed dispersal to adjacent sites, the dynamics of such populations should be studied in a metapopulation context. We study a structured metapopulation model with local dispersal, mimicking a string of roadside subpopulations of a feral crop. Population growth is assumed to be subject to local disturbances, introducing spatially random environmental stochasticity. Our aim is to understand the role of dispersal and environmental variability in the dynamics of such ephemeral populations. We determine the effect of dispersal on the extinction boundary and on the distribution of persistence times, and investigate the influence of spatially correlated disturbances as opposed to spatially random disturbances. We find that, given spatially random disturbances, dispersal slows down the decline of the metapopulation and results in the occurrence of long-lasting local populations which remain more or less static in space. We identify which life history traits, if changed by genetic modification, have the largest impact on the population growth rate and persistence times. For oilseed rape, these are seed bank survival and dormancy. Combining our findings with literature data on transgene-induced life history changes, we predict that persistence is promoted by transgenes for oil-modifications (high stearate or high laurate) and, possibly, for insect resistence (Bt). Transgenic tolerance to glufosinate herbicide is predicted to reduce persistence.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Frank van den Bosch

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
biocontrol - natural enemies
Research topic(s) for beneficials or antagonists:
environment/habitat manipulation

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
Bacillus thuringiensis genes in crops (entomopathogen)