Journal of Phytopathology - Phytopathologische Zeitschrift (1995) 143, 651-657

X.B. Yang (1995)
Analysis of the long-term dynamics of stem and leaf rusts of wheat in North America using a time-series approach
Journal of Phytopathology - Phytopathologische Zeitschrift 143 (11-12), 651-657
Abstract: Historical data on wheat stem rust in the US and wheat leaf rust in Canada were analysed using a time-series approach to detect patterns in their long-term dynamics. Three sets of historical data were analysed, the first of which described the annual appearance of wheat-stem rust in six regions of the western Mississippi Basin from 1921 to 1961. Models developed from these data had significant autocorrelation components of AR(1) or AR(2), indicating that the date of disease appearance in 1 year wasstatistically related to the dates of appearance in the previous 1-2 years. The series of six regions were spatially significantly correlated with each other. Values of the cross-correlation coefficient increased from 0.20 to 0.83 as the distance between, two regions decreased. The second data set represented relative diversity of physiological races of wheat stem rust from 1918 to 1982. Analysis suggested that a change in race diversity may occur in the US every 5-6 years, based on AR(5) and AR(6) patterns. The third data set had two series on the phenotypes of leaf rust in the eastern and prairie regions of Canada. Analysis indicated that there was a 2-year autoregressive component AR(2) in each of these two time series. Analysis further suggestedthat the prairie population differed from the eastern population in having a 4-year moving average component, MA(4), in the majority of individual races.
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Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Puccinia triticina	Wheat (Triticum)	Canada (east)
	Puccinia triticina	Wheat (Triticum)	U.S.A. (mid N)
	Puccinia triticina	Wheat (Triticum)	Canada (west)