Journal of Applied Entomology (2018) 142, 272-276

R.P. Blackshaw and P. Esbjerg (2018)
Statistical indicators for insects caught in the development trap
Journal of Applied Entomology 142 (1-2), 272-276
Abstract: The effects of climate change on insect phenologies are of current interest, but little attention has been given to the potential driver for population decline of increased mortality arising from the failure to reach a viable overwintering stage. We use numerical simulation modelling to show that increased mortality from a partial second generation results in the weakening of density dependence, whereas increasing mortality within the first generation does not. These general results are then compared with annual trap count data for the moth Agrotis segetum (Denis and Schiffermüller) in Denmark, a species which is in decline there because a partial second generation fails to survive the winter. Results from the moth data are consistent with those from the simulations, and we conclude that the development trap phenomenon can be detected by the application of simple statistical tests to time-series data.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Rod P. Blackshaw, Peter Esbjerg

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology
environment - cropping system/rotation

---

Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Agrotis segetum		Denmark