Annals of Applied Biology (2014) 165, 53-61

E. Castellanos-Frías, D. García de León, A. Pujadas-Salva, J. Dorado and J.L. Gonzalez-Andujar (2014)
Potential distribution of Avena sterilis L. in Europe under climate change
Annals of Applied Biology 165 (1), 53-61
Abstract: Avena sterilis (sterile oat) is one of the most extended and harmful weeds in Mediterranean cereal crops. A process-based niche model for this species was developed using CLIMEX. The model was validated and used to assess the potential distribution of A. sterilis in Europe under the current climate and under two climate change scenarios. Both scenarios represent contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO₂ emissions. The projections under current climate conditions indicated that A. sterilis does not occupy the full extent of the climatically suitable habitat available to it in Europe. Under future climate scenarios, the model projection showed a gradual advance of sterile oat towards Northeastern Europe and a contraction in Southern Europe. The infested potential area increases from the current 45.2% to 51.3% in the low-emission CO₂ scenario and to 59.5% under the most extreme scenario. These results provide the necessary knowledge for identifying and highlighting the potential invasion risk areas and for establishing the grounds on which to base the planning and management measures required. The main actions should be focused on controlling the large-scale seed scattering, preventing seed dispersal into potentially suitable areas.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Jose L. Gonzalez-Andujar, José Dorado

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
environment - cropping system/rotation
surveys/sampling/distribution

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Avena sterilis (weed)		Spain (continental)