Acta Entomologica Sinica (1965) 14, 319-338

Ma Shih-chun, Ting Yen-chin and Li Den-mo (1965)
[Study on long-term prediction of locust population fluctuations]
Acta Entomologica Sinica 14 (4), 319-338
Abstract: Procedures are proposed for establishing a long-term prediction equation expressing the fluctuations in locust population based on data obtained over 50 years (1913-62) from Hung-tze Lake, in China, a region typical for locusts [Locusta migratoria manilensis], from which the effective factors were selected to construct predictive formulae. The formulae were derived by three methods, direct extrapolation from analysis of population fluctuations, random sequence and periodical equations based on environmental factors and population bionomics, and stepwise multiple regression. The formulae obtained by the three methods each reflect some characteristics of population fluctuation, and each can be applied independently, but the median result obtained after comparing one with another proved more accurate in practice.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied from Acridological Abstracts with permission by NRI, Univ. of Greenwich at Medway.)
(original language: Chinese)

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology
thresholds/decision-support systems

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Locusta migratoria