EFSA Journal (2022) 20 (11 - e07523)

EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), Claude Bragard, Paula Baptista, Elisavet Chatzivassiliou, Francesco Di Serio, Paolo Gonthier, Josep Anton Jaques Miret, Annemarie Fejer Justesen, Alan MacLeod, Christer Sven Magnusson, Panagiotis Milonas, Juan A Navas-Cortes, Stephen Parnell, Roel Potting, Philippe Lucien Reignault, Emilio Stefani, Hans-Hermann Thulke, Antonio Vicent Civera, Jonathan Yuen, Lucia Zappalà, Gianni Gilioli, David Makowski, Alexander Mastin, Ewelina Czwienczek, Andrea Maiorano, Olaf Mosbach-Schulz, Marco Pautasso, Giuseppe Stancanelli, Sara Tramontini and Wopke van der Werf (2022)
Pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitellafor the European Union
EFSA Journal 20 (11 - e07523)
Abstract: Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella(Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on pathways of introduction, climatic conditions and cultivation of hosts allowing establishment, spread and impact. A. transitellais a common pest of almonds, pistachios and walnuts in California, which is the main source for these nuts imported into the EU. Based on size of the trade and infestation at origin, importation of walnuts and almonds from the USA was identified as the most important pathways for entry of A. transitella.Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, a median estimate of 2,630 infested nuts is expected to enter the EU each year over the next 5 years (90% certainty range (CR) from 338 to 26,000 infested nuts per year). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of transfer to a host, mating upon transfer and survival of founder populations, the number of populations that establish was estimated to be 0.000698 year^-1(median, 90% CR: 0.0000126–0.0364 year^-1). Accordingly, the expected period between founding events is 1,430 years (median, 90% CR: 27.5–79,400 year). The likelihood of entry resulting in establishment is therefore considered very small. However, this estimate has high uncertainty, mainly concerning the processes of transfer of the insect to hosts and the establishment of founder populations by those that successfully transfer. Climate matching and CLIMEX modelling indicate that conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. The median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 5.6 km/year (median, 90% CR 0.8–19.3 km/year), after an initial lag period of 3.1 year (mean, 90% CR 1.7–6.2 year) following the establishment of a founder population. If A. transitelladid establish, estimated median yield losses in nuts were estimated to be in the order of 1–2% depending on the nut species and production system. A scenario requiring imports of nuts to be transported under chilled conditions was shown to provide potential to further reduce the likelihood of entry.
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Full text of article
Database assignments for author(s): Claude Bragard, Elisavet K. Chatzivassiliou, Francesco Di Serio, Paolo Gonthier, Alan MacLeod, Panagiotis G. Milonas, Juan A. Navas-Cortes, Philippe Reignault, Emilio Stefani, Jonathan Yuen, Lucia Zappala, David Makowski, Wopke van der Werf

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
review
quarantine treatments/regulations/aspects

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Amyelois transitella	Almond (Prunus dulcis)	U.S.A. (SW)
	Amyelois transitella	Walnut/butternut (Juglans)	U.S.A. (SW)