Journal of Pest Science (2018) 91, 1191-1198

Shimin Gu, Peng Han, Zhengpei Ye, Lynda E. Perkins, Jing Li, Huiqing Wang, Myron P. Zalucki and Zhaozhi Lu (2018)
Climate change favours a destructive agricultural pest in temperate regions: late spring cold matters
Journal of Pest Science 91 (4), 1191-1198
Abstract: Global climate change has profound consequences on survival and reproduction of arthropods. In particular, in temperate regions changes in spring temperatures have a major impact on crop pest population dynamics, but the mechanisms remain elusive. By analysing empirical data of Helicoverpa armigera moth populations from three sites over 12–13 years in northwestern China, and running modelling (DYMEX software), we intended to clarify how the late spring cold (LSC) events affect the populations of this destructive pest species. We then explored the relationships between LSC parameters and moth population dynamics using model simulations. Our results highlight the importance of LSC in driving H. armigera population dynamics. Of the LSC parameters tested, the duration of LSC measured as the maximum continuous days with a minimum temperature lower than 10 °C (MCDL) was a key factor influencing the population abundance of the spring and summer generations. Furthermore, the model showed that the timing of the LSC event had a major effect on how the MCDL influenced each generation. The timing with respect to the eclosion of the overwintering generation was critical, and it determined the variation in the abundance of the first and subsequent generations. Our findings imply that the abundance of H. armigera will increase as the frequency and duration of LSC events decrease under global spring warming. Incorporating the duration and timing of LSC events into decision-making should improve forecasting H. armigera abundance and other insect species under global climate change and better inform pest management.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Zhao-Zhi Lu, Myron P. Zalucki, Lynda E. Perkins

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
environment - cropping system/rotation

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Helicoverpa armigera		China (NW)