Pest Management Science (2022) 78, 4114-4126

Abdelmutalab G.A. Azrag, Samira A. Mohamed, Shepard Ndlela and Sunday Ekesi (2022)
Predicting the habitat suitability of the invasive white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis; Newstead, 1906 (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) using bioclimatic variables
Pest Management Science 78 (10), 4114-4126
Abstract:
BACKGROUND
The white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), is an invasive pest that threatens the production of several crops of commercial value including mango. Though it is an important pest, little is known about its biology and ecology. Specifically, information on habitat suitability of A. tubercularis occurrence and potential distribution under climate change is largely unknown. In this study, we used four ecological niche models, namely maximum entropy, random forest, generalized additive models, and classification and regression trees to predict the habitat suitability of A. tubercularis under current and future [representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the year 2070] climatic scenarios, using bioclimatic variables. Models' performance was evaluated using the true skill statistic (TSS), the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), and the deviance.
RESULTS
All models sufficiently predicted the occurrence of A. tubercularis with high accuracy (AUC > 0.93, TSS > 0.81 and COR > 0.77). The random forest algorithm had the highest accuracy among the four models (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.93, COR = 0.90, deviance = 0.26). Temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables influencing A. tubercularis occurrence. Models' predictions showed that countries in east, south, and west Africa are highly suitable for A. tubercularis establishment under current conditions. Similarly, Mexico, Brazil, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are also highly suitable for the pest to thrive. Under future conditions, the suitable areas might slightly decrease in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa under both RCPs. However, the range of expansion of A. tubercularis is projected to be higher in Australia, Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Portugal under the future climatic scenarios.
CONCLUSION
The results reported here will be useful for guiding decision-making, developing an effective management strategy, and serving as an early warning tool to prevent further spread toward new areas.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Sunday Ekesi

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
environment - cropping system/rotation

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Aulacaspis tubercularis	Mango (Mangifera indica)	Kenya