Pest Management Science (2005) 61, 649-659

John J. Johnston, Melvin J. Holmes, Andy Hart, Dennis J. Kohler and Randal S. Stahl (2005)
Probabilistic model for estimating field mortality of target and non-target bird populations when simultaneously exposed to avicide bait
Pest Management Science 61 (7), 649-659
Abstract: A probabilistic model was developed to estimate target and non-target avian mortality associated with the application of the avicide CPTH (3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride) to minimize sprouting rice damage in the southern USA. CPTH exposures for individual birds were predicted by random sampling from species-specific non-parametric distributions of bait seed consumption and CPTH residues detected on individual bait seeds. Mortality was predicted from the species-specific exposure versus mortality relationship. Individual variations in this response were captured in the model by Monte Carlo sampling from species-specific distributions of slopes and median toxicity values (LD₅₀) for each bird. The model was used to simultaneously predict mortality (percentage of exposed population and number of birds killed/weight of consumed bait) for a target (blackbird) and non-target (mourning dove) species feeding on bait sites for up to five consecutive days.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): John J. Johnston

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
control - general

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Agelaius phoeniceus	Rice (Oryza)