PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2022) 16 (1 - e0010019)

Sabrina L. Li, André L. Acosta, Sarah C. Hill, Oliver J. Brady, Marco A.B. de Almeida, Jader da C. Cardoso, Arran Hamlet, Luis F. Mucci, Juliana Telles de Deus, Felipe C.M. Iani, Neil S. Alexander, G.R. William Wint, Oliver G. Pybus, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Nuno R. Faria and Jane P. Messina (2022)
Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 (1 - e0010019)
Abstract:
Background
Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk.
Methodology/Principal findings
We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991–2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover.
Conclusions/Significance
Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.
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Full text of article
Database assignments for author(s): Oliver Jerome Brady

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
environment - cropping system/rotation
surveys/sampling/distribution

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Haemagogus janthinomys		Brazil (south)
	Haemagogus janthinomys		Brazil (NE)
	Haemagogus leucocelaenus		Brazil (south)
	Sabethes chloropterus		Brazil (south)
	Sabethes cyaneus		Brazil (NE)
	Sabethes purpureus		Brazil (south)
	Sabethes albiprivus		Brazil (south)