Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection (2021) 128, 853-863

Gundappa Baradevanal, Subhash Chander, P.D. Kamala Jayanthi, H.S. Singh and D. Srinivasa Reddy (2021)
Assessing the risk of mango quarantine pest Deanolis sublimbalis Snellen under different climate change scenarios
Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection 128 (3), 853-863
Abstract: Considering the quarantine importance of the red-banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis (Crambidae: Lepidoptera), studies were carried out to predict the impact of climate change on its geographical distribution using the ecological niche modeling. Predictions were made based on the analysis of the relationship between occurrence points of D. sublimbalis and the corresponding current and future climate data of the study area, which was retrieved from the worldclim database. Spatial analysis software DIVA-GIS was used for visualization of the maps. The maximum entropy algorithm provided reasonable estimates of the species range in respect of discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence in both present and future climatic conditions. The model provided a good fit for species distribution with a high value of area under the curve (0.971). Jackknife test indicated temperature seasonality to be the most important bioclimatic variable determining the potential geographical distribution of D. sublimbalis. The model predicted higher suitability areas for the pest occurrence in eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh, coastal regions of Orissa, southern parts of West Bengal, and some parts of Tripura. In future climate scenarios of 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2080, model-predicted relative increase in its distribution. Prediction of likely changes in the pest distribution with climate change will be useful in formulating effective management strategies against mango fruit borer.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Subhash Chander, Pagadala Damodaram Kamala Jayanthi

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
general biology - morphology - evolution

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Deanolis sublimbalis	Mango (Mangifera indica)	India