EPPO Bulletin (2000) 30, 131-136

A. Butturini, R. Tiso and F. Molinari (2000)
Phenological forecasting model for Cydia funebrana
EPPO Bulletin 30 (1), 131-136
Abstract: A simulation model of the phenology of Cydia funebrana (plum fruit moth) is presented. The Logan function was used to determine the temperature-dependent developmental rates of the eggs, larvae and pupae; a linear equation was used for the ageing rate of females. The mean fecundity of females as a function of age was expressed by a modified Bieri's function. In order to simulate the stochastic process, a time-distributed delay model was used. Results from the validation of the model in northern Italy (1995 and 1997) are reported. Catches of male moths in pheromone traps and oviposition activity were monitored in orchards of mid- and late-ripening plum cultivars. The model was then run using temperature data from each farm. When the oviposition activity forecast by the model was compared with that actually observed in the orchards, good correlations between actual and forecast oviposition were obtained. The model is already available for technicians in Emilia-Romagna and is a valuable tool in integrated fruit production; it gives an indication of the right moment to apply insecticides or to carry out further monitoring activity to assess the risk of C. funebrana damage (e.g. by sampling actual oviposition on just a single occasion).
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Fabio Molinari

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
thresholds/decision-support systems
population dynamics/ epidemiology

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Grapholita funebrana		Italy