EPPO Bulletin (2000) 30, 105-113

J. de Kraker, J.E. van den Ende, W.A.H. Rossing, C. Bastiaansen and W. van der Werf (2000)
Computer-aided design of improved warning systems - a case study for Botrytis control in flower bulbs
EPPO Bulletin 30 (1), 105-113
Abstract: Development and improvement of warning systems are often done empirically, relying on extensive field testing. As this approach is both costly and time-consuming, there is a need for a more rational and efficient alternative. In a study to explore the options for improvement of a Botrytis warning system in flower bulbs, we applied a computer-based approach to systems design. The approach consisted of the construction and evaluation of modified versions of the warning system using epidemiological knowledge, data sets of recorded and forecast weather and a simulation model of epidemic development and fungicide spray impact. Performance of modified versions was evaluated with regard to fungicide input, efficacy of disease control and sensitivity to the prediction error in weather forecasts. This approach can be more efficient than a purely empirical one, as it enables the designer to limit the number of alternative versions to be field-tested on the basis of explicit performance criteria. It also has the advantage that it provides insight into the potentials for improvement of the warning system.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Wopke van der Werf, Walter A.H. Rossing

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology
thresholds/decision-support systems

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Botrytis elliptica		Netherlands
	Botrytis gladiolorum		Netherlands
	Botrytis tulipae		Netherlands