Bulletin of Entomological Research (2021) 111, 476-484

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos and Cesar Augusto Marchioro (2021)
Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions
Bulletin of Entomological Research 111 (4), 476-484
Abstract: The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Database assignments for author(s): Cesar A. Marchioro

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
general biology - morphology - evolution
environment - cropping system/rotation

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Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial	Pest/Disease/Weed	Crop/Product	Country	Quarant.
	Neoleucinodes elegantalis	Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum)	Brazil (south)