Wildlife Research (2011) 38, 551-559
C. Imholt, A. Esther, J. Perner and J. Jacob (2011)
Identification of weather parameters related to regional population outbreak risk of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in Eastern Germany
Wildlife Research 38 (7), 551-559
Abstract: Context: Common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations can increase to several thousand individuals per hectare during outbreaks. In central Europe such outbreaks usually extend across large areas but there can be significant regional differences in outbreak intensity, general outbreak risk and associated crop damage.
Aims: We tested whether weather parameters can be used to explain the regional variability in outbreak risk of common voles in an area of Eastern Germany where common vole outbreaks are common.
Method: Suitable weather parameters were identified by principal component analysis (PCA). Time series of common vole abundance from 50 locations across 36 500 km2 sampled in 1973-97 were related to weather parameters selected by PCA and multiple linear regression. A hierarchical cluster analysis was used on relevant weather parameters to display the temporal and spatial variability in vole abundance. An overlay of risk class transformed abundances allowed for the identification of appropriate threshold values to define vole outbreaks.
Key results: Weather parameters were closely related to the variation in regional outbreak risk of common voles. Mostly weather parameters in winter and early spring were identified to be highly important. All risk thresholds tested revealed similar patterns for the distribution of risk classes across locations and years. While most years of very low or very high outbreak risk clustered well according to weather parameters, some cases of medium risk classes did not cluster well.
Conclusions: Weather parameters especially in winter and early spring are related to common vole outbreak risk in the following autumn. This is the case for extremely high and low outbreak risks and is largely independent of the choice of particular threshold values for outbreak risk.
Implications: Weather parameters could be used to develop automated forecast systems at the spatial resolution of single weather stations. Combined with other parameters that are easily available, such as information on soil characteristics, such forecasts might be as reliable as more complex biological models developed in the past.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
environment - cropping system/rotation
population dynamics/ epidemiology
Pest and/or beneficial records:
| Beneficial | Pest/Disease/Weed | Crop/Product | Country | Quarant.
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microtus arvalis | Germany |
