Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences (2019) 286 (1894 - 20182294)

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Joshua Goldstein, Jaewoo Park, Murali Haran, Andrew Liebhold and Ottar N. Bjørnstad (2019)
Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 286 (1894 - 20182294)
Abstract: - The spread of invasive species can have far-reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions.
- We combine a set of statistical methods in a novel way to characterize local spread properties and demonstrate their application using simulated and historical data on invasive insects. Our method uses a Gaussian process fit to the surface of waiting times to invasion in order to characterize the vector field of spread.
- Using this method, we estimate with statistical uncertainties the speed and direction of spread at each location. Simulations from a stratified diffusion model verify the accuracy of our method.
- We show how we may link local rates of spread to environmental covariates for two case studies: the spread of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), and hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in North America. We provide an R-package that automates the calculations for any spatially referenced waiting time data.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
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Database assignments for author(s): Andrew M. Liebhold

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology

Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial Pest/Disease/Weed Crop/Product Country Quarant.
Lymantria dispar
Adelges tsugae