PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2020) 14 (5 - e0007854)

From Pestinfo-Wiki
Jump to: navigation, search
People icon1.svgSelected publication
of interest to a wider audience. We would welcome
contributions to the Discussion section (above tab) of this article.
Remember to log in or register (top right corner) before editing pages.
Elisha B. Are and John W. Hargrove (2020)
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp)
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 (5 - e0007854)
Abstract:
Background
A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations.
Methods
We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations.
Results
For fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability.
Conclusions
The high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Full text of article


Database assignments for author(s): John W. Hargrove

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
control - general


Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial Pest/Disease/Weed Crop/Product Country Quarant.
Glossina morsitans