Journal of Applied Entomology (2020) 144, 263-269
of interest to a wider audience. We would welcome
contributions to the Discussion section (above tab) of this article.
Remember to log in or register (top right corner) before editing pages.
The effect of spatial variation for predicting aphid outbreaks
Journal of Applied Entomology 144 (4), 263-269
Abstract: In order to improve forecasting of pest epidemics, it is important to know the spatial scale at which specific forecasts are reliable. To investigate the spatial scale of aphid outbreaks, we have developed a spatio-temporal stochastic aphid population growth model and fitted the model to empirical spatial time series of aphid population data using a Bayesian hierarchical fitting procedure. Furthermore, detailed spatial data of the initial phases of population growth were investigated in semivariograms. Our results suggest that spatial variation is low in the initial occurrence probability at a spatial scale of 10 km. Consequently, the results support the hypothesis that initial aphid population sizes and outbreaks may be predicted in fields within a 10 km radius. For farmers, this may imply that they can rely their decision of whether to spray against aphids on observations made by other nearby farmers or by the consultancy service.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
Link to article at publishers website
Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
population dynamics/ epidemiology
Pest and/or beneficial records: