Journal of Integrated Pest Management (2017) 8 (1 - 3)

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Roger D. Magarey and Scott A. Isard (2017)
A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models
Journal of Integrated Pest Management 8 (1 - 3)
Abstract: There is copious literature on development and validation of models to forecast risk to crops from arthropods and diseases; however, there is little published on causes of failure associated with these models. This manuscript provides mechanistic model builders and users with a list of likely problems, potential causes, possible solutions, and associated references. The problems are divided into four categories: environmental inputs, model construction and parameterization, validation, and implementation. The list is based on the authors' extensive experiences developing and running mechanistic modeling systems. A multidisciplinary approach involving researchers with expertise in pest biology, crop management, meteorology, and information technology is recommended for delivering the most effective pest forecast models.
(The abstract is excluded from the Creative Commons licence and has been copied with permission by the publisher.)
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Database assignments for author(s): Roger D. Magarey

Research topic(s) for pests/diseases/weeds:
thresholds/decision-support systems
population dynamics/ epidemiology


Pest and/or beneficial records:

Beneficial Pest/Disease/Weed Crop/Product Country Quarant.